⚽ 足球预测 · XGBoost + Poisson

模型：XGBoost(1X2/大小球) + Poisson(比分) · 特征：Elo/form/赔率隐含/xG · 数据：BetExplorer+Understat(五大联赛) · 生成于 2026-10-23T17:42
预测 82
模拟下注复盘 30天
英超 England · Premier League 6 场 · xG已覆盖
开球对阵XGBoost 1X2Poisson大小球2.5最可能比分赔率1/X/2价值
10-23T20:00Ipswich vs Nottingham
8. Round
30% / 29% / 41%
22%/22%/56%Over 2.5 (54%)1-13.2/3.54/2.29
10-24T12:30Aston Villa vs Manchester City
8. Round
19% / 20% / 62%
21%/25%/54%Over 2.5 (65%)0-14.88/4.37/1.67
15:00Arsenal vs Everton
8. Round
67% / 21% / 12%
46%/27%/27%Over 2.5 (58%)1-11.47/4.56/7.5
17:30Chelsea vs Tottenham
8. Round
59% / 22% / 19%
73%/16%/11%Over 2.5 (63%)2-01.72/4.35/4.49
10-25T15:00Crystal Palace vs Newcastle
8. Round
30% / 30% / 41%
52%/21%/27%Over 2.5 (59%)2-12.98/3.65/2.36
17:30Sunderland vs Leeds
8. Round
31% / 30% / 39%
12%/30%/58%Under 2.5 (46%)0-13.18/3.28/2.41
西甲 Spain · La Liga 10 场 · xG已覆盖
开球对阵XGBoost 1X2Poisson大小球2.5最可能比分赔率1/X/2价值
10-23T20:00Alaves vs Malaga
10. Round
55% / 25% / 19%
68%/20%/11%Over 2.5 (51%)1-01.66/3.74/5.58
10-24T13:00Rayo Vallecano vs Elche
10. Round
55% / 26% / 19%
40%/27%/32%Over 2.5 (53%)1-11.77/3.78/4.46
15:15Racing Santander vs Espanyol
10. Round
37% / 28% / 35%
50%/22%/28%Over 2.5 (58%)1-12.37/3.6/2.82
17:30Valencia vs Villarreal
10. Round
30% / 27% / 44%
19%/24%/57%Over 2.5 (56%)0-13.2/3.6/2.16
20:00Atl. Madrid vs Dep. A Coruna
10. Round
76% / 15% / 9%
66%/17%/17%Over 2.5 (69%)2-11.28/5.87/10.25
10-25T14:00Ath Bilbao vs Getafe
10. Round
60% / 25% / 15%
58%/25%/17%Under 2.5 (48%)1-01.57/3.98/6.09
16:15Celta Vigo vs Betis
10. Round
32% / 28% / 39%
47%/22%/31%Over 2.5 (55%)1-12.88/3.41/2.44
18:30Real Sociedad vs Levante
10. Round
60% / 22% / 18%
42%/26%/32%Over 2.5 (58%)1-11.65/4.19/4.79
21:00Barcelona vs Real Madrid
10. Round
68% / 17% / 15%
57%/17%/25%Over 2.5 (70%)2-11.61/5.57/3.96价值·主胜 +9%
10-26T21:00Sevilla vs Osasuna
10. Round
51% / 28% / 21%
48%/22%/29%Under 2.5 (48%)1-11.94/3.4/4.09
德甲 Germany · Bundesliga 5 场 · xG已覆盖
开球对阵XGBoost 1X2Poisson大小球2.5最可能比分赔率1/X/2价值
10-23T19:30Stuttgart vs B. Monchengladbach
7. Round
72% / 17% / 11%
67%/16%/17%Over 2.5 (64%)2-11.33/5.63/7.39
10-24T14:30FC Koln vs Schalke
7. Round
46% / 28% / 27%
57%/20%/24%Over 2.5 (63%)2-12.03/3.7/3.23
17:30Dortmund vs Eintracht Frankfurt
7. Round
71% / 14% / 15%
65%/18%/17%Over 2.5 (65%)2-11.45/4.92/5.65价值·主胜 +7%
10-25T15:30Hoffenheim vs Bayer Leverkusen
7. Round
32% / 36% / 32%
28%/19%/53%Over 2.5 (64%)1-22.69/3.83/2.27价值·平 +11%
17:30Freiburg vs Bayern Munich
7. Round
18% / 18% / 65%
34%/21%/46%Over 2.5 (70%)1-26.37/5.58/1.35
意甲 Italy · Serie A 14 场 · xG已覆盖
开球对阵XGBoost 1X2Poisson大小球2.5最可能比分赔率1/X/2价值
10-23T19:45Torino vs Monza
8. Round
41% / 33% / 25%
43%/24%/33%Under 2.5 (50%)1-12.1/3.43/3.56
10-24T14:00Cagliari vs Bologna
8. Round
30% / 31% / 38%
44%/28%/28%Under 2.5 (35%)1-03.15/3.01/2.48
17:00Napoli vs AS Roma
8. Round
36% / 28% / 36%
33%/29%/38%Over 2.5 (51%)1-12.78/3.36/2.53
19:45Lazio vs Parma
8. Round
71% / 18% / 11%
58%/22%/21%Over 2.5 (54%)1-11.4/4.67/8.09
10-25T12:30Inter vs Fiorentina
8. Round
72% / 17% / 10%
65%/16%/18%Over 2.5 (65%)2-11.35/5.43/7.59
15:00Atalanta vs Frosinone
8. Round
56% / 21% / 23%
44%/28%/29%Over 2.5 (56%)1-11.81/4.08/3.89
18:00Lecce vs Juventus
8. Round
13% / 18% / 69%
20%/22%/57%Over 2.5 (61%)1-17.29/4.27/1.46
20:45Udinese vs AC Milan
8. Round
19% / 23% / 57%
22%/22%/56%Over 2.5 (56%)1-14.89/3.85/1.69
10-27T18:30Sassuolo vs Lazio
9. Round
32% / 31% / 37%
16%/23%/61%Over 2.5 (51%)0-12.86/3.35/2.44
20:45AS Roma vs Cagliari
9. Round
73% / 16% / 11%
70%/18%/12%Over 2.5 (55%)2-01.35/4.88/9.12
10-28T18:30AC Milan vs Bologna
9. Round
60% / 21% / 18%
64%/21%/14%Over 2.5 (59%)1-01.61/4.05/5.23
20:45Genoa vs Juventus
9. Round
19% / 22% / 59%
23%/22%/55%Over 2.5 (55%)1-15.39/3.79/1.64
10-29T18:30Frosinone vs Lecce
9. Round
51% / 26% / 23%
30%/26%/45%Over 2.5 (53%)1-11.89/3.71/3.88
20:45Fiorentina vs Atalanta
9. Round
41% / 27% / 32%
27%/22%/51%Over 2.5 (57%)1-12.27/3.53/3.0
法甲 France · Ligue 1 5 场 · xG已覆盖
开球对阵XGBoost 1X2Poisson大小球2.5最可能比分赔率1/X/2价值
10-23T19:45Brest vs Nice
8. Round
42% / 29% / 29%
54%/23%/23%Over 2.5 (54%)1-12.19/3.5/3.19
10-24T19:45Lens vs Paris FC
8. Round
39% / 28% / 33%
40%/26%/34%Over 2.5 (58%)1-12.4/3.56/2.78
10-25T15:00Monaco vs Lille
8. Round
47% / 27% / 26%
47%/28%/26%Under 2.5 (50%)1-02.03/3.45/3.6
17:15Angers vs Lorient
8. Round
31% / 30% / 39%
40%/26%/34%Under 2.5 (48%)1-12.94/3.34/2.4
20:45PSG vs Lyon
8. Round
68% / 20% / 12%
46%/25%/29%Over 2.5 (62%)1-11.42/5.09/6.3
荷甲 Netherlands · Eredivisie 8 场 · 无xG·靠Elo+赔率
开球对阵XGBoost 1X2Poisson大小球2.5最可能比分赔率1/X/2价值
10-23T19:00G.A. Eagles vs Telstar
10. Round
62% / 21% / 17%
47%/27%/26%Over 2.5 (60%)1-01.57/4.39/5.09
10-24T15:30Utrecht vs Zwolle
10. Round
60% / 22% / 18%
40%/21%/40%Over 2.5 (63%)2-11.62/4.24/4.67
17:45Willem II vs Cambuur
10. Round
34% / 29% / 38%
32%/24%/44%Over 2.5 (56%)1-12.51/3.65/2.54
20:00Den Haag vs Heerenveen
10. Round
30% / 25% / 45%
30%/21%/49%Over 2.5 (59%)1-23.29/3.77/2.01
10-25T12:15Sittard vs Excelsior
10. Round
38% / 28% / 35%
36%/24%/40%Over 2.5 (58%)1-12.34/3.58/2.76
14:30Nijmegen vs Groningen
10. Round
39% / 25% / 36%
44%/22%/35%Over 2.5 (60%)1-12.25/3.82/2.77
16:45Sparta Rotterdam vs Ajax
10. Round
16% / 23% / 62%
16%/16%/69%Over 2.5 (62%)1-25.21/4.71/1.51
20:00AZ Alkmaar vs Twente
10. Round
41% / 25% / 34%
52%/24%/24%Over 2.5 (58%)1-12.16/3.79/2.92
葡超 Portugal · Liga Portugal 8 场 · 无xG·靠Elo+赔率
开球对阵XGBoost 1X2Poisson大小球2.5最可能比分赔率1/X/2价值
10-23T20:45Vitoria Guimaraes vs Maritimo
9. Round
60% / 23% / 16%
54%/25%/21%Over 2.5 (53%)1-01.6/3.98/5.6
10-24T15:30Estrela vs Casa Pia
9. Round
54% / 27% / 20%
41%/30%/29%Under 2.5 (48%)1-01.77/3.61/4.52
18:00Alverca vs Arouca
9. Round
44% / 28% / 27%
41%/29%/30%Under 2.5 (46%)1-02.15/3.27/3.43
20:30Gil Vicente vs FC Porto
9. Round
14% / 18% / 68%
22%/27%/51%Over 2.5 (62%)0-16.87/4.37/1.45
10-25T16:30Estoril vs Moreirense
9. Round
49% / 26% / 25%
42%/26%/32%Over 2.5 (51%)1-11.94/3.55/3.76
19:00Nacional vs Braga
9. Round
17% / 22% / 61%
26%/22%/52%Over 2.5 (60%)1-15.73/4.03/1.56
21:30Sporting CP vs Academico Viseu
9. Round
79% / 13% / 8%
50%/23%/27%Over 2.5 (69%)1-11.25/6.09/10.12
10-26T19:45Santa Clara vs Benfica
9. Round
12% / 14% / 74%
25%/23%/52%Over 2.5 (62%)1-18.61/4.67/1.36
土超 Türkiye · Süper Lig 8 场 · 无xG·靠Elo+赔率
开球对阵XGBoost 1X2Poisson大小球2.5最可能比分赔率1/X/2价值
10-23T18:00Alanyaspor vs Kocaelispor
9. Round
49% / 28% / 23%
52%/28%/19%Under 2.5 (41%)1-01.96/3.23/4.03
10-24T11:30Eyupspor vs Kasimpasa
9. Round
17% / 22% / 61%
17%/22%/61%Over 2.5 (52%)0-15.55/3.88/1.58
14:00Gaziantep vs Erzurumspor
9. Round
43% / 29% / 28%
41%/27%/32%Under 2.5 (43%)1-12.19/3.1/3.45
17:00Samsunspor vs Amedspor
9. Round
27% / 27% / 46%
33%/22%/44%Over 2.5 (57%)1-13.37/3.56/2.03
10-25T14:00Konyaspor vs Genclerbirligi
9. Round
50% / 26% / 24%
65%/20%/14%Under 2.5 (44%)2-01.87/3.43/4.06
17:00Goztepe vs Corum
9. Round
44% / 27% / 29%
29%/19%/52%Over 2.5 (57%)1-22.17/3.54/3.05
10-26T17:00Besiktas vs Basaksehir
9. Round
72% / 14% / 13%
66%/17%/17%Over 2.5 (62%)2-11.36/5.14/7.08
19:30Galatasaray vs Fenerbahce
9. Round
42% / 25% / 34%
47%/23%/30%Over 2.5 (61%)1-12.16/3.72/2.92
英冠 England · Championship 3 场 · 无xG·靠Elo+赔率
开球对阵XGBoost 1X2Poisson大小球2.5最可能比分赔率1/X/2价值
10-23T20:00Bolton vs Middlesbrough
12. Round
19% / 20% / 61%
31%/26%/44%Over 2.5 (63%)1-14.68/4.32/1.64
10-24T12:30Charlton vs Norwich
12. Round
25% / 31% / 44%
51%/28%/21%Over 2.5 (50%)1-03.19/3.45/2.18
15:00Blackburn vs Wrexham
12. Round
35% / 29% / 36%
49%/24%/27%Under 2.5 (41%)1-12.71/3.2/2.62
比甲 Belgium · Pro League 8 场 · 无xG·靠Elo+赔率
开球对阵XGBoost 1X2Poisson大小球2.5最可能比分赔率1/X/2价值
10-23T19:45Kortrijk vs KV Mechelen
9. Round
35% / 29% / 36%
29%/28%/42%Over 2.5 (52%)0-12.55/3.4/2.51
10-24T15:00Antwerp vs Charleroi
9. Round
22% / 26% / 52%
10%/17%/73%Over 2.5 (54%)0-23.86/3.79/1.78
17:15Leuven vs Lommel SK
9. Round
50% / 25% / 25%
36%/26%/38%Over 2.5 (53%)1-11.88/3.67/3.59
19:45RAAL La Louviere vs Waregem
9. Round
32% / 28% / 39%
37%/24%/39%Over 2.5 (50%)1-12.89/3.33/2.3
10-25T13:30Genk vs St. Liege
9. Round
57% / 24% / 19%
55%/20%/25%Over 2.5 (58%)2-11.72/3.81/4.16
16:00Club Brugge KV vs St. Truiden
9. Round
72% / 16% / 12%
61%/18%/21%Over 2.5 (64%)2-11.33/5.34/6.82
18:30Gent vs Anderlecht
9. Round
42% / 28% / 30%
37%/26%/37%Under 2.5 (42%)1-12.31/3.18/2.97
19:15Royale Union SG vs Cercle Brugge KSV
9. Round
75% / 15% / 10%
64%/22%/14%Over 2.5 (60%)1-01.29/5.35/8.18
日职联 Japan · J1 League 6 场 · 无xG·靠Elo+赔率
开球对阵XGBoost 1X2Poisson大小球2.5最可能比分赔率1/X/2价值
10-24T06:00Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs Shimizu S-Pulse
12. Round
71% / 16% / 13%
70%/17%/13%Over 2.5 (60%)2-01.4/4.82/6.9
07:00Kashima Antlers vs Kashiwa Reysol
12. Round
39% / 27% / 34%
38%/25%/37%Over 2.5 (54%)1-12.28/3.5/2.94
08:00Gamba Osaka vs Kyoto
12. Round
50% / 24% / 25%
44%/27%/29%Over 2.5 (54%)1-11.93/3.77/3.55
10-25T06:00Nagoya Grampus vs Yokohama F. Marinos
12. Round
37% / 28% / 35%
31%/29%/40%Over 2.5 (53%)0-12.36/3.47/2.77
07:00Cerezo Osaka vs Chiba
12. Round
55% / 25% / 20%
60%/22%/18%Over 2.5 (51%)1-01.71/3.86/4.46
08:00FC Tokyo vs Mito
12. Round
75% / 14% / 11%
54%/25%/21%Over 2.5 (58%)1-01.31/5.1/9.05
K联赛 Korea · K League 1 1 场 · 无xG·靠Elo+赔率
开球对阵XGBoost 1X2Poisson大小球2.5最可能比分赔率1/X/2价值
10-24T06:00Anyang vs Jeonbuk
33. Round
22% / 27% / 51%
23%/34%/44%Under 2.5 (49%)0-13.82/3.5/1.89
说明：XGBoost 出 1X2 与大小球概率（主条），Poisson 出比分矩阵（最可能比分列）。"Poisson"列是 Poisson 模型的 1X2 概率对比。 "价值"标签 = 模型概率比市场赔率隐含概率高出 ≥6 个百分点 的方向（悬停可见两个概率对比）——含义是模型认为该结果被市场低估，是判断材料而非下注信号。点击联赛标题可折叠/展开。11 联赛混合训练，验证集 3681 场：1X2 acc 0.537 vs Poisson 0.501，O/U AUC 0.619 vs 0.571。xG 特征覆盖五大联赛，其他联赛回落进球均值。
回测周期
30 天 / 321 场
总下注
1637 注 · 命中 278 (17.0%)
整体 ROI
+6.8%
资金曲线
¥1000 → ¥1934.25 (+93.4%)
资金曲线
¥2308 2026-09-27 2027-05-17 ¥301
按玩法拆分
玩法注数下注回报ROI
比分 (crs)960¥5808¥7109+22.4%
总进球 (ttg)642¥7294¥7198-1.3%
胜平负 (had)35¥705¥433-38.6%
真实体彩注单（每日自动下注在售比赛，赛后结算）
已结算 0 注 · 命中 0（0%）· 下注 ¥0 · 回报 ¥0 · ROI +0.0% · 待开打 2 注
开球对阵玩法方向体彩赔率金额比分结果盈亏
10-24 20:30Gil Vicente vs FC Porto
PPL		胜平负主胜8.25¥20-待开打-
10-24 15:00Arsenal vs Everton
EPL		胜平负客胜8.12¥3-待开打-
说明：历史回测对过去 30 天已打比赛 walk-forward 模拟下注体彩三玩法（胜平负/比分/总进球）。 体彩模拟赔率 = BetExplorer 国际 1X2 赔率 × 0.75（体彩返奖率~71% vs 国际~95%）+ 比分/总进球按体彩常见固定赔率档。 下注策略：胜平负按凯利值（kelly>0 即下注，金额 min(kelly,5%)）；比分/总进球按模型 top-N 比分/进球档等额分注（2%/2.5% 资金 ÷ N）。 ⚠️ 数据泄漏提示：本回测用最终 Elo（含所有比赛）算赛前预测，非严格 walk-forward，实际表现会打折——仅供参考模型方向，不作为真实下注依据。 生成于 2026-10-23T18:18