足球预测 · XGBoost+Poisson

⚽ 足球预测 · XGBoost + Poisson

模型：XGBoost(1X2/大小球) + Poisson(比分) · 特征：Elo/form/赔率隐含 · 数据：BetExplorer · 生成于 2026-10-23T16:16 · 共 30 场

开球	对阵	XGBoost 1X2	Poisson	大小球2.5	最可能比分	赔率1/X/2	价值
10-23T20:00	Ipswich vs Nottingham EPL · 8. Round	32% / 26% / 42%	22%/22%/56%	Under 2.5 (49%)	1-1	3.2/3.54/2.29
10-24T12:30	Aston Villa vs Manchester City EPL · 8. Round	25% / 12% / 64%	21%/25%/54%	Over 2.5 (56%)	0-1	4.88/4.37/1.67
10-24T15:00	Arsenal vs Everton EPL · 8. Round	69% / 14% / 17%	46%/27%/27%	Over 2.5 (57%)	1-1	1.47/4.56/7.5
10-24T17:30	Chelsea vs Tottenham EPL · 8. Round	49% / 28% / 23%	73%/16%/11%	Over 2.5 (58%)	2-0	1.72/4.35/4.49
10-25T15:00	Crystal Palace vs Newcastle EPL · 8. Round	35% / 26% / 39%	52%/21%/27%	Over 2.5 (56%)	2-1	2.98/3.65/2.36
10-25T17:30	Sunderland vs Leeds EPL · 8. Round	27% / 21% / 52%	36%/28%/36%	Over 2.5 (53%)	1-1	3.18/3.28/2.41	价值·客胜 +12%
10-31T13:30	Chelsea vs Manchester Utd EPL · 9. Round	55% / 26% / 19%	64%/19%/18%	Over 2.5 (62%)	2-1	1.79/4.0/3.95
10-31T16:00	Bournemouth vs Leeds EPL · 9. Round	26% / 27% / 47%	54%/25%/21%	Under 2.5 (48%)	1-0	2.11/3.55/3.3	价值·客胜 +18%
10-31T18:30	Tottenham vs Crystal Palace EPL · 9. Round	71% / 19% / 10%	32%/25%/43%	Over 2.5 (56%)	1-1	1.58/4.3/5.2	价值·主胜 +11%
10-31T21:00	Aston Villa vs Fulham EPL · 9. Round	43% / 24% / 33%	49%/26%/25%	Over 2.5 (54%)	1-0	2.01/3.65/3.45	价值·客胜 +6%
11-01T17:30	Liverpool vs Arsenal EPL · 9. Round	43% / 22% / 35%	35%/26%/40%	Over 2.5 (56%)	1-1	3.25/3.7/2.08	价值·主胜 +14%
11-02T21:00	Newcastle vs Everton EPL · 9. Round	37% / 22% / 42%	34%/29%/37%	Over 2.5 (56%)	1-1	-/-/-
11-06T21:00	Everton vs Coventry EPL · 10. Round	39% / 23% / 38%	59%/24%/16%	Over 2.5 (56%)	1-0	-/-/-
11-07T13:30	Leeds vs Tottenham EPL · 10. Round	45% / 23% / 32%	55%/24%/22%	Over 2.5 (56%)	1-0	-/-/-
11-07T16:00	Arsenal vs Hull EPL · 10. Round	46% / 20% / 34%	54%/24%/21%	Over 2.5 (54%)	1-0	-/-/-
11-07T18:30	Nottingham vs Manchester City EPL · 10. Round	31% / 16% / 52%	5%/23%/72%	Over 2.5 (56%)	0-1	-/-/-
11-08T15:00	Brighton vs Brentford EPL · 10. Round	45% / 26% / 29%	58%/22%/20%	Over 2.5 (58%)	1-1	-/-/-
11-08T17:30	Manchester Utd vs Aston Villa EPL · 10. Round	38% / 22% / 40%	42%/28%/30%	Over 2.5 (55%)	1-1	-/-/-
11-21T13:30	Manchester City vs Fulham EPL · 11. Round	51% / 16% / 33%	60%/21%/19%	Over 2.5 (55%)	1-1	-/-/-
11-21T16:00	Aston Villa vs Sunderland EPL · 11. Round	42% / 20% / 38%	62%/20%/18%	Over 2.5 (58%)	2-1	-/-/-
11-21T18:30	Newcastle vs Arsenal EPL · 11. Round	42% / 21% / 38%	31%/27%/41%	Over 2.5 (56%)	1-1	-/-/-
11-22T15:00	Hull vs Brighton EPL · 11. Round	50% / 17% / 32%	28%/22%/50%	Over 2.5 (56%)	1-1	-/-/-
11-22T17:30	Liverpool vs Manchester Utd EPL · 11. Round	44% / 22% / 34%	52%/23%/26%	Over 2.5 (57%)	1-1	-/-/-
11-23T21:00	Brentford vs Everton EPL · 11. Round	51% / 22% / 27%	43%/24%/32%	Over 2.5 (58%)	1-1	-/-/-
11-27T21:00	Nottingham vs Chelsea EPL · 12. Round	26% / 22% / 52%	28%/30%/41%	Over 2.5 (54%)	0-1	-/-/-
11-28T16:00	Leeds vs Coventry EPL · 12. Round	49% / 21% / 30%	51%/25%/24%	Over 2.5 (56%)	1-1	-/-/-
11-28T18:30	Ipswich vs Aston Villa EPL · 12. Round	32% / 22% / 46%	26%/26%/48%	Over 2.5 (57%)	1-1	-/-/-
11-29T13:00	Everton vs Liverpool EPL · 12. Round	46% / 23% / 30%	38%/25%/37%	Over 2.5 (56%)	1-1	-/-/-
11-29T15:05	Brighton vs Newcastle EPL · 12. Round	40% / 27% / 33%	74%/15%/11%	Over 2.5 (58%)	2-0	-/-/-
11-29T17:30	Arsenal vs Manchester City EPL · 12. Round	44% / 16% / 39%	25%/26%/49%	Over 2.5 (54%)	0-1	-/-/-

开球

对阵

XGBoost 1X2

Poisson

大小球2.5

最可能比分

赔率1/X/2

价值

10-23T20:00

Ipswich vs Nottingham
EPL · 8. Round

32% / 26% / 42%

22%/22%/56%

Under 2.5 (49%)

1-1

3.2/3.54/2.29

10-24T12:30

Aston Villa vs Manchester City
EPL · 8. Round

25% / 12% / 64%

21%/25%/54%

Over 2.5 (56%)

0-1

4.88/4.37/1.67

10-24T15:00

Arsenal vs Everton
EPL · 8. Round

69% / 14% / 17%

46%/27%/27%

Over 2.5 (57%)

1-1

1.47/4.56/7.5

10-24T17:30

Chelsea vs Tottenham
EPL · 8. Round

49% / 28% / 23%

73%/16%/11%

Over 2.5 (58%)

2-0

1.72/4.35/4.49

10-25T15:00

Crystal Palace vs Newcastle
EPL · 8. Round

35% / 26% / 39%

52%/21%/27%

Over 2.5 (56%)

2-1

2.98/3.65/2.36

10-25T17:30

Sunderland vs Leeds
EPL · 8. Round

27% / 21% / 52%

36%/28%/36%

Over 2.5 (53%)

1-1

3.18/3.28/2.41

价值·客胜 +12%

10-31T13:30

Chelsea vs Manchester Utd
EPL · 9. Round

55% / 26% / 19%

64%/19%/18%

Over 2.5 (62%)

2-1

1.79/4.0/3.95

10-31T16:00

Bournemouth vs Leeds
EPL · 9. Round

26% / 27% / 47%

54%/25%/21%

Under 2.5 (48%)

1-0

2.11/3.55/3.3

价值·客胜 +18%

10-31T18:30

Tottenham vs Crystal Palace
EPL · 9. Round

71% / 19% / 10%

32%/25%/43%

Over 2.5 (56%)

1-1

1.58/4.3/5.2

价值·主胜 +11%

10-31T21:00

Aston Villa vs Fulham
EPL · 9. Round

43% / 24% / 33%

49%/26%/25%

Over 2.5 (54%)

1-0

2.01/3.65/3.45

价值·客胜 +6%

11-01T17:30

Liverpool vs Arsenal
EPL · 9. Round

43% / 22% / 35%

35%/26%/40%

Over 2.5 (56%)

1-1

3.25/3.7/2.08

价值·主胜 +14%

11-02T21:00

Newcastle vs Everton
EPL · 9. Round

37% / 22% / 42%

34%/29%/37%

Over 2.5 (56%)

1-1

-/-/-

11-06T21:00

Everton vs Coventry
EPL · 10. Round

39% / 23% / 38%

59%/24%/16%

Over 2.5 (56%)

1-0

-/-/-

11-07T13:30

Leeds vs Tottenham
EPL · 10. Round

45% / 23% / 32%

55%/24%/22%

Over 2.5 (56%)

1-0

-/-/-

11-07T16:00

Arsenal vs Hull
EPL · 10. Round

46% / 20% / 34%

54%/24%/21%

Over 2.5 (54%)

1-0

-/-/-

11-07T18:30

Nottingham vs Manchester City
EPL · 10. Round

31% / 16% / 52%

5%/23%/72%

Over 2.5 (56%)

0-1

-/-/-

11-08T15:00

Brighton vs Brentford
EPL · 10. Round

45% / 26% / 29%

58%/22%/20%

Over 2.5 (58%)

1-1

-/-/-

11-08T17:30

Manchester Utd vs Aston Villa
EPL · 10. Round

38% / 22% / 40%

42%/28%/30%

Over 2.5 (55%)

1-1

-/-/-

11-21T13:30

Manchester City vs Fulham
EPL · 11. Round

51% / 16% / 33%

60%/21%/19%

Over 2.5 (55%)

1-1

-/-/-

11-21T16:00

Aston Villa vs Sunderland
EPL · 11. Round

42% / 20% / 38%

62%/20%/18%

Over 2.5 (58%)

2-1

-/-/-

11-21T18:30

Newcastle vs Arsenal
EPL · 11. Round

42% / 21% / 38%

31%/27%/41%

Over 2.5 (56%)

1-1

-/-/-

11-22T15:00

Hull vs Brighton
EPL · 11. Round

50% / 17% / 32%

28%/22%/50%

Over 2.5 (56%)

1-1

-/-/-

11-22T17:30

Liverpool vs Manchester Utd
EPL · 11. Round

44% / 22% / 34%

52%/23%/26%

Over 2.5 (57%)

1-1

-/-/-

11-23T21:00

Brentford vs Everton
EPL · 11. Round

51% / 22% / 27%

43%/24%/32%

Over 2.5 (58%)

1-1

-/-/-

11-27T21:00

Nottingham vs Chelsea
EPL · 12. Round

26% / 22% / 52%

28%/30%/41%

Over 2.5 (54%)

0-1

-/-/-

11-28T16:00

Leeds vs Coventry
EPL · 12. Round

49% / 21% / 30%

51%/25%/24%

Over 2.5 (56%)

1-1

-/-/-

11-28T18:30

Ipswich vs Aston Villa
EPL · 12. Round

32% / 22% / 46%

26%/26%/48%

Over 2.5 (57%)

1-1

-/-/-

11-29T13:00

Everton vs Liverpool
EPL · 12. Round

46% / 23% / 30%

38%/25%/37%

Over 2.5 (56%)

1-1

-/-/-

11-29T15:05

Brighton vs Newcastle
EPL · 12. Round

40% / 27% / 33%

74%/15%/11%

Over 2.5 (58%)

2-0

-/-/-

11-29T17:30

Arsenal vs Manchester City
EPL · 12. Round

44% / 16% / 39%

25%/26%/49%

Over 2.5 (54%)

0-1

-/-/-

说明：XGBoost 出 1X2 与大小球概率（主条），Poisson 出比分矩阵（最可能比分列）。"Poisson"列是 Poisson 模型的 1X2 概率对比。 "价值"= XGBoost 概率显著高于赔率隐含的方向，是判断材料非下注信号。验证集(2024/25)：XGBoost 1X2 acc 0.539 vs Poisson 0.503，O/U AUC 0.578 vs 0.539。xG 接入后准确率将进一步提升。